Ray Dalio: El maestro de todas las estaciones

Después de hablar del gran Warrent Buffet, ahora toca hablar acerca de uno de mis inversores favoritos. Déjame presentarte a Ray Dalio y su cartera all seasons (una versión low cost del fondo all-weather).

Contenido


¿Quién es Ray Dalio?

Ray Dalio se crio en Long Island, dentro de una familia de clase media. Con apenas 12 años trabajaba como caddie para los golfistas de la zona. Resultó que estos golfistas eran inversores y Ray Dalio aprovechó para escuchar sus conversaciones y recomendaciones acerca de los mercados financieros. A partir de ese instante, comenzó la aventura de Ray Dalio en el mundo de la inversión.

Ray se graduó en la universidad de long Island, y gracias a su sobresaliente expediente, fue admitido en Harvard para estudiar un Master en administración de empresa, dónde comenzó a fraguar su leyenda.

En 1975, desde un apartamento de dos dormitorios en Nueva York fundó su empresa Bridgewater. Actualmente, es el presidente honorífico de esta compañía que la convirtió en uno de los mayores hedge fund del mundo gestionando 160.000 millones de dólares. ¡Casi nada!

Inversor Fondo Periodo Rentabilidad anualizada
Ray Dalio
Pure Alpha
1991-2018
12%

Ray Dalio es considerado unos de los mejores inversores del mundo. Durante el periodo 1991-2018 logró una rentabilidad anualizada del 12% con el fondo Pure Alpha. ¡Una rentabilidad realmente impresionante!

En su libro “Principios” (Principles, en inglés) Ray Dalio desde un enfoque tanto personal como profesional, nos comparte aquellos valores y principios que él considera como base de su éxito. Un libro muy recomendable de leer.

Cartera all seasons de Ray Dalio

En el libro “Dinero: Domina el juego” (Money master: The game, en inglés), Tony Robbins comparte la cartera all seasons. Una versión low cost del fondo all-weather de Ray Dalio.

Según el propio Ray Dalio, los precios de los activos se mueven en función de 4 posibles entornos (4 estaciones):

  1. Inflación
  2. Deflación
  3. Crecimiento económico
  4. Decrecimiento económico

Ray denomina a cada uno de estos entornos como una estación, y según la estación en la que nos encontremos, irán mejor unos activos que otros. 

Posibles entorno posibles Ray Dalio - Cartera all seasons

Como existen 4 posibles estaciones y nadie sabe lo que va a suceder. La cartera all season no pretende predecir el futuro, sino proteger nuestra cartera y que ésta tenga un buen comportamiento en cualquier estación/entorno. Ya puedes entender porque llaman a Ray Dalio como el maestro de todas las estaciones…

Para Ray, a la hora de crear una cartera es fundamental repartir su riesgo entre activos descorrelacionados. Pero su concepto de repartición del riesgo es muy diferente a lo convencional.

Muchos de nosotros, pensaremos que teniendo una cartera invertida un 50% en acciones y otro 50% en bonos, ya estamos repartiendo el riesgo. Pero, según Ray Dalio, en realidad corremos mucho más riesgo del que pensamos, ya que las acciones tienen un riesgo 3 veces mayor que los bonos.

Con el 50% de nuestro dinero invertido en acciones, a primera vista parece que tenemos una cartera equilibrada. Pero realmente, como podemos observar en la gráfica, el riesgo real de las acciones sería del 95% y no del 50%. Si las acciones bajan mucho, también lo hará nuestra cartera del 50/50.

Composición de la cartera all seasons

Me imagino que ahora estarás ansioso por descubrir cómo se compone esta cartera.

Lo primero que puedes pensar al apreciar su composición, es el elevado porcentaje que se invierte en bonos (55% en total) y tan solo el 30% en acciones. Pero recuerda que las acciones son 3 veces más arriesgadas que los bonos y la obsesión que tiene Ray Dalio en repartir correctamente el riesgo de la cartera. El 15% restante lo reparte entre oro y materias primas con un 7,5%, respectivamente.

¿Y qué rentabilidad podemos obtener con esta cartera?

Rentabilidad cartera all seasons de Ray Dalio

Si analizamos esta cartera desde diciembre 2006 a diciembre 2019, obtenemos una rentabilidad anualizada del 6,99% con una desviación estándar del 7% y una pérdida máxima del 12,19% durante la crisis del 2009. Mencionar que para la realización de este análisis se hizo un rebalanceo al inicio de cada año. 

Como puedes ver, la cartera all season es una cartera conservadora cuyo objetivo fundamental es protegernos y evitar llevarnos grandes sustos en épocas de crisis.

Cómo crear una cartera all seasons

Vale, hasta aquí todo esto parece interesante, pero ¿Cómo puedo replicar esta cartera?

En la siguiente tabla te muestro cómo crear una cartera all seasons mediante fondos indexados y ETF’s. Una cartera simple y con una comisión muy reducida.

Activo % Cartera Fondo/ETF Nombre del fondo ISIN Comisión
Acciones
30%
Fondo
Amundi MSCI EMU AE-C
LU0389811372
0,30%
Bonos del Estado a L/P
40%
ETF
iShares € Govt Bond 20yr Target Duration (E20Y)
IE00BSKRJX20
0,15%
Bonos del Estado a M/P
15%
Fondo
Vanguard Euro Government Bond Index Funds Shares
IE0007472115
0,25%
Materias primas
7,5%
ETF
iShares Diversified Commodity Swap UCITS (SXRS)
IE00BDFL4P12
0,19%
Oro
7,5%
ETF
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold (SGBS)
JE00B588CD74
0,19%

Espero que hayas disfrutado de la lectura tanto como yo al redactar este artículo. ¿Te gusta la cartera all seasons?

¡Déjame un comentario! Tu opinión me interesa 😉

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4.324 comentarios en «Ray Dalio: El maestro de todas las estaciones»

  1. Interesante Estrategia.
    Y veo que hoy en día es muy fácil replicar esta cartera con fondos y etf.
    Y con costes muy bajos.
    Podrías decirme en qué brokers se pueden comprar?
    Y si cobran una nueva capa de comisiones?

    Saludos.

    Responder
    • Hola Bernardo!

      La verdad que es una estrategia que me llamo mucho la atención, por ello decidí dedicarle un post.

      He estado investigando a ver donde podrías contratar estos fondos o ETF’s:

      Fondos:
      – Amundi MSCI EMU AE-C (LU0389811372): SelfBank, Renta 4
      – Vanguard Euro Government Bond Index Funds Shares (IE0007472115): BNP Paribas

      ETF’s:
      – iShares € Govt Bond 20yr Target Duration «E20Y» (IE00BSKRJX20): Degiro
      – iShares Diversified Commodity Swap UCITS «SXRS»(IE00BDFL4P12): En Degiro hay este ETF con el ticker «ICOM» pero en la divisa USD.
      – ETFS Physical Swiss Gold «SGBS» (JE00B588CD74): Degiro

      Espero haberte respondido a tu duda!

      Un saludo

      Responder
      • Me siento un poco perdido con los fondos y ETFs.
        Resulta complicado abrir varias cuentas en distintas casas… Con distintas políticas de comisiones.
        Quizás por eso tienen exito los roboadvisors. Lo que pasa es que no te dejan configurar tu cartera, te hacen los rebalanceos… que está muy bien pero igual no te interesa, y te están cobrando otra pequeña comisión más sobre los fondos…
        Bueno. Creo que cada vez hay más opciones de fondos fuera de los bancos…
        Saludos.

        Responder
        • Cierto! Los roboadvisors pueden resultar una opción muy interesante para algunas personas. Es una herramienta muy sencilla, bajas comisiones y con posibilidad de automatizar todo el proceso de inversión incluido los rebalanceos. Pero no existe nada perfecto, como bien mencionas todavía siguen siendo muy rígidos en cuanto a la composición de la cartera.

          Otra opción que tienes, es realizar una cartera all seasons solamente con ETF’s con Degiro. Lo negativo que pierdes las ventajas fiscales de los traspasos con los fondos, pero puedes realizar el rebalanceo comprando los ETF’s que menos se han revalorizados.

          Responder
  2. No es mala idea. Y si solo rebalanceas comprando (con dinero de dividendos o ahorro). Sin vender los que han subido… te ahorras parte de las comisiones.
    Aún así desconfio de los ETF, por si tienen comisiones ocultas. En cualquier caso es bueno DEGIRO para ETFs?
    Y luego hay indices con y sin dividendos. por ejemplo he visto ETF del IBEX35 sin dividendos. Pero hay un IBEX total return para el cual no he encontrado ETF.

    Responder
  3. Muchas gracias por el artículo! Es muy interesante.

    ¿Hay fondos de inversión equivalentes a los ETFs que planteas para seguir esta estrategia?

    Me siento más cómodo con fondos, entre otras cuestiones por su fiscalidad y facilidad para el rebalanceo. Aunque tuvieran una comisión de gestión un poco más alta, asumiría el coste en pos de las otras ventajas.

    Muchas gracias nuevamente!

    Responder
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